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PredictIt is an innovative real-money online prediction market focused on political and financial events. Established as a research project by Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand, and operated in the U.S. by Aristotle International, Inc., PredictIt allows users to trade contracts based on the outcomes of future events. It aims to aggregate collective wisdom to generate accurate forecasts and provide valuable data for academic research. The platform has historically operated under a no-action letter from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and is currently engaged in legal proceedings regarding its operational status.
Manages the U.S. operational aspects, regulatory compliance, and technology for the PredictIt platform.
Proximity to U.S. political institutions in Washington D.C., facilitating focus on political event markets.
A blend of tech-driven platform operations and academic research rigor, emphasizing data integrity and market neutrality within a politically-aware environment.
Washington D.C. hub is crucial for a platform specializing in U.S. political prediction markets. The New Zealand university connection provides academic credibility and research oversight.
PredictIt primarily serves users in the United States due to specific regulatory permissions. Its research and academic foundations are international, originating from Victoria University of Wellington in New Zealand. The platform's focus is on events, predominantly U.S. political, but its model and data are of global academic interest.
205 Pennsylvania Ave SE
Washington
D.C.
USA
Address: Victoria University of Wellington, Kelburn Parade, Wellington 6012, New Zealand
Serves as the intellectual and research origin of PredictIt, focusing on data analysis, academic studies related to prediction markets, and maintaining the educational mission of the platform.
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As of April 2025, PredictIt' leadership includes:
PredictIt has been backed by several prominent investors over the years, including:
Specific executive movements directly attributed to the core PredictIt team are not frequently publicized. Key leadership is generally stable within the operating entities, Aristotle International and Victoria University of Wellington. No specific hires or exits for dedicated PredictIt executive roles have been publicly announced in the last 12 months.
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PredictIt's primary contact is often through support channels on their website. Emails to specific individuals would likely follow the formats of Aristotle International (for U.S. operations) or Victoria University of Wellington (for research). Common formats include [first].[last]@[domain] or [f][last]@[domain].
For Aristotle: [first_initial][last]@aristotle.com or [first].[last]@aristotle.com. For Victoria University: [first].[last]@vuw.ac.nz
Format
jphillips@aristotle.com or simon.keller@vuw.ac.nz
Example
70%
Success rate
Associated Press • November 10, 2023
A federal appeals court granted PredictIt an injunction, allowing the political futures market to continue operating while it challenges the Commodity Futures Trading Commission's (CFTC) decision to revoke its no-action letter. This allows new markets to be offered beyond the original February 2023 shutdown date....more
PredictIt Market Activity (Observed) • May 20, 2024
The PredictIt market concerning the winner of the 2024 U.S. presidential election remains highly active, with continuous trading reflecting shifting public sentiment and responses to political developments. Prices for contracts on leading candidates fluctuate dynamically as new information and polling data emerge....more
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